March 16, 2025.
The ousting of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad ushered in a new era of hope and uncertainty for the Syrian people. On December 8, due to the offensive on behalf of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Assad and his family fled the capital. The leader of HTS, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, has long been led and been affiliated with various jihadist groups in the past, such as al-Qaeda in Iraq and the al-Nusra Front, two U.S-labeled terrorist groups. Once the leader of al-Nusra, then HTS, a rebranding of al-Nusra, Julani has since become the president and de-facto leader of Syria following his role in overthrowing Assad. Due to his past, many foreign governments have approached Syria’s new government with skepticism, engaging in little diplomacy. The legitimacy and future security of citizens in a new Syrian state remain unclear due to Juliani’s and other Sunni extremists’ treatment of minorities in the past, such as Alawites and Druze. Over the past few weeks numerous key events have transpired and developed throughout the country, heavily testing Julani’s ability to rule and further consolidate power.
I closely followed the actions that unfolded in Syria following the weeks of Assads overthrow in late 2024. However, information regarding the new government and future of Syria remained unclear. Three months after the regime change, various moves have been made by the central governing authority and other international actors which gives a glimpse into the future of Syrian governance and stability.
Following the success of the HTS offensive, Julani called to create a new Syria, rebuilding and uniting the country for all Syrians, minorities included. To many it was clear that Julani, then the head of HTS, was the de-facto ruler of Syria. Julani became the official leader as Syrian president on January 29. However, the country in which Julani assumed of power was that of a destroyed, poor, and incredibly fractured state, with many armed groups still controlling vast amounts of Syrian territory. To what seems like an impossible task, Julani and his transitional government have focused on one thing crucial to the success of their plan: the consolidation of their power. It is incredibly important that the new Syrian authority acts carefully to not provoke any foreign actor, such as Israel, through direct or in-direct confrontations. Furthermore, it is vital that they also remain popular amongst the masses in Syria. However, the events that transpired over the last week have put this factor to the test. The last two months have been crucial to the overall success of a new Syria, with many foreign actors playing a role in establishing relations and rebuilding the country. Turkey for example, has taken a much more hands on approach, attempting to have direct influence within the new government. On the other hand, the U.S has remained mainly isolated from the Syrian transitional government and hasn’t made many moves since President Biden left office.
Shortly after HTS seized control over the government, the militant group disbanded, with its members taking new positions within the transitional government and the Syrian armed forces, now under Julani’s control. The day of Assads overthrow, it was clear that Abu Muhammad al-Julani was going to be the new leader of Syria, posing questions for how democratic the future of Syria will be. Julani became president on January 29. However, little progress was made in the field of establishing a legitimate and democratic government during the first two months of Islamist rule. Held on February 25 in Damascus, the National Dialogue News Conference set the foundation for the future of Syrian governance. Many of the groups met to discuss a new constitution, transitional justice, and the potential future economic models for Syria. The conference was attended by hundreds, with many declaring their aims of the transitional government and their means of achieving these goals. Members of the organization committee called for inclusive governance, free expressionism, and an end to Israel military presence throughout the country. Following the event, Julani and his government began moving swiftly to further consolidate political and territorial power. The interim government took a massive step and succeeded at reuniting a large amount of Syrian territory, one of Julani’s main goals. The Kurdish, an ethnic group which have been fighting Turkey and various other militant groups since the 1970s, signed a pact with the Syrian government. The Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led armed group which has long been backed by the U.S and enemies with Turkey, signed a peace deal on March 10 effectively integrates the SDF into the Syrian army. This pact also brings the previously controlled SDF territory under control as the land currently held by the transitional government. This agreement will also see that border crossings, airports, and oil fields will all be brought under the control of the government in Damascus. This is a monumental success for a new Syria as with this deal the interim government doubled the amount of territory that it now holds.
Three days later on March 13, the interim government of Syria adopted a temporary constitution, officially establishing a five-year transitional government with Julani in charge for the full period. The new constitution guarantees individual freedoms but gives Julani abundant power and keeps Islamic law as the legal and ideological foundation of the Government. The constitution also promises freedom of expression, opinion, information, publication, and press, pledging to protect the rights of all Syrians, including Alawites, Druze, Christians, and Jews. On the other hand, the new constitution has its drawbacks as many hoped to see quicker change in Syria, such as elections. The constitution serves as a temporary one which will last five years and see Julani in power for the entire period. During this time a permanent constitution will be crafted, seeing the installation of elections for president and parliament. Julani is given a considerable amount of power by the temporary constitution, as it grants the president executive authority to declare a state of emergency. Furthermore, Julani will be in charge of appointing one third of the legislature, in charge of appointing electoral commissions which oversee the other two thirds and is solely in charge of appoints all judges to Syria’s new constitutional court. Lastly, the constitution states that the president must be a Muslim, and all legislation must adhere to Islam, which it playing and essential part of Syrian governance and society.
However, amid the successes of the transitional government, their public image has servilely declined over the past two weeks, leading the legitimacy of the government to be criticized internationally. Between March 6 and March 8, violence resurged along Syria’s northern coastline in the cities of Latakia, Jableh, and Tartus. Various armed groups consisting of those loyal to the Assad and those opposed to current rule in Syria launched an attack on Syrian security forces. In retaliation, armed groups aligned with the central authority in Syria began a series of revenge killings, targeting the armed opposition and Alawites. Following the end of the conflicts, the death toll has risen to over 1,000, with 745 civilians, 125 government forces, and 148 resistance fighters killed according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The resurgence in conflict, leading to mass civilian casualties, marks one of the deadliest acts of violence since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. In the days following, Julani gave a statement on television condemning the actions of the retaliation attacks, calling on all participants to stop fighting and allow government security forces to handle the situation. It is rumored that among those carrying out attacks on civilians were various government forces. However, Julani denied this claim and stated that those engaging in the attacks were induvial actors and not part of the government, as he has called upon a majority of the active Syrian militias to dissolve. The humanitarian crisis along the coast has worsened in recent days due to a shortage of drinking water and electricity, as both services were shut off during the fighting. The transitional government’s ability to quickly handle the violence and humanitarian situation has led many to question the legitimacy of the government. Furthermore, the government’s public image has been severely tainted by the violence that took place along the coastal cities, as many of the armed participants are ideologically aligned with the government. This only reaffirms the views of those already skeptical of the former jihadist now ruling the government, with some seeing the potential return of jihadist violence on behalf of the government and its allies.
While the new government has been challenged in its ability to handle domestic affairs, they have also been busy with various diplomatic missions throughout the Middle East. However, many foreign governments remain skeptical of Syria’s new authority, questioning the illegitimacy of a former al-Queda member ruling a country. At the time Assad was overthrown, the United States had a ten-million dollar bounty on Julani. When it became clear to many that Julani was the de-facto leader, the U.S sent its top diplomat for the Middle East: Barabara Leaf, to which the bounty was later dropped. A little under a month after Assad was disposed, the U.S eased some restrictions and allowed the entry of humanitarian aid into Syria on January 6. The U.S treasury department also issues a general license lasting six months which authorizes various transactions with the new government in Syria. However, the U.S remains firm in that it’s not lifting sanctions on Syria, showing little support for the new government. On the other hand, the European Union has claimed that they will lift broad sanctions on Syria, attempting to help restore Syria’s incredibly stagnant economy. Following Assads response to the Arab Spring protest in Syria with chemical weapons, much of the world put sanctions on Syria. These sanctions have been incredibly effective in destroying Syria’s economy, with most of the state income under Assad coming from the production and distribution of drugs by the regime. Since 2011, Syria’s economy has shrunk by 85 percent according to the World Bank.
Israel has also taken precautionary action attempting to establish a larger buffer between Syrian authority and Israel, immediately moving Israeli Defense Forces into a United Nations monitored de-militarized zone in the Golan Heights. At the time of the IDF advancement in late 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that it was only a temporary measure. However, he has since then Netanyahu has said that the IDF will stay indefinitely and will not allow Syrian forces south of Damascus. The day Assad was ousted, Israel began a series of strikes on various chemical weapons sites, seeking to prevent them from falling into the hands of HTS militants. Since then Israel has continued a series of strikes on targets within Syria, recently bombing a Palestinian target residing in Damascus. During the conference held in Damascus on February 25, committee members called for Israel to seize operations in Syria and withdrawal from the zone of the Westbank which they occupied on December 8. However, hours after this Israel carried out strikes outside of Damascus.
While the U.S and Israel remain skeptical of the new government and have approached them with precautionary measures, Turkey continues its support for the new Syrian authority. Turkey played a pivotal role in the two-week operation which saw the fall of Assad, backing HTS. Through this Turkey has established itself as a legitimate asset to the new government, with the ability to maintain heavy influence on the new Syrian state. Turkish president, Tayyip Erdogan has publicly expressed support for Julani and his efforts to unite and stabilize the country, highlighting Erdogan’s interests in Syria’s stability and future. Syrian authority and Turkey continue to engage in diplomatic relations following the creation of the transitional government. The dissolution of the SDF proved to be major win for both Syria and Turkey, as Syrian authority has now doubled territory, and Turkey no longer must deal with SDF who they deemed a terrorist group. Other Arab nations, such as Qatar, have also expressed an interest in Syria with the aims of rebuilding Syria and making it sustainable, gaining a legitimate foothold in the region. To combat Syria’s electricity and power shortage, Qatar made a deal with Syria to provide natural gas to Syria via a pipeline passing through Jordan. Qatar will send two-million meters of cubic meters of natural gas a day to Dier Ali power station with the aims of generating 400 megawatts of electricity a day.
While its hard to determine the future of Syrian domestic politics and its role in the international system, the actions taken by the transitional government allow a glimpse into the future. Julani and his government aim to unite and bring peace to Syria. While the government has Islam play a foundational part in Syria’s government and society, officials show a legitimate interest in establishing peace and induvial freedoms. Syria appears to be on the path for a somewhat limited democracy, external actors also show a legitimate interest in determining to future of Syria. Among them are most notably Turkey and Israel, and with Syria remaining fractured and controlled by various groups, the country poses the potential to become a new front for Turkish, Iranian, Israeli, and American proxies.
Sources:
Syria’s sects: delicate mix for its new Islamist leaders | Reuters
Turkey and Israel face mounting tensions over future of post-Assad Syria | AP News
Syria Has a New Temporary Constitution. Here Are the Highlights.
Qatar will send natural gas to Syria to increase its meager electricity supply | AP News
Can al-Sharaa Hold Syria Together?
Syria flashes signs of peril and promise in a week of violence and diplomacy | AP News
Worst violence in Syria leaves more than 1000 people dead in two days | AP News
Syria’s National Dialogue and Other Headlines of the Day | Council on Foreign Relations
US eases restrictions on Syria while keeping sanctions in place
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